Werder Bremen Vs Bayern Leverkusen Clash
Werder Bremen Vs Bayern Leverkusen
The Bundesliga first Monday night football since the coronavirus pandemic break pits relegation threatened Bremen face champions league seeking Leverkusen whose fine form before the break caused by the coronavirus puts them as favourites.
Werder Bremen enters its “Monday Night Football” clash against Bayer Leverkusen in a perilous position as the league resumes play. Werder currently sits 17th (of 18) in the Bundesliga, facing potential relegation to the second division if it doesn’t improve in the final stretch of the season.
The River Islanders have conceded 55 goals in 24 matches, the most of any team, but its underlying expected goals numbers aren’t nearly as bad as the 55 goals would suggest. With just 36.9 xGA this year, no team in the Bundesliga has been more unfortunate defensively.
While I’d typically look to play on teams that have underperformed its xG by that much defensively, I have major concerns about the fitness issues and recent form. Werder has won just four games all season, and its attack has generated the third-worst xGF in the league for a reason.
While Werder was falling down the table , Leverkusen were the hottest team in the league prior to the layoff. Die Werkself have won 12 of their last 14 matches in all competitions, placing themselves in the heart of the top four race for Champions League spots. They are fifth in xGF and xGA and are one of the league’s most balanced sides.
While striker Kevin Volland’s status is in doubt, Leverkusen’s attack is well spread out. Seven players have at least three goals, including Kai Havertz and Luca Alario with six each behind Volland’s nine. If Volland doesn’t play, Leverkusen’s possession-based attack should be able to camp out inside the Werder half as Die Werkself ranks second only to Bayern in possession percentage.
With the extended layoff and shortened training period before games, the talent and quality of the better sides has undone the lack of cohesion from the lower table teams, home or away.
Even though I’ll be looking to bet on Werder down the final stretch of the season, this is not the spot for them. This showdown would have been one of its most anticipated home games, but instead it’ll be without the home crowd. I’m expecting Leverkusen to have no problems keeping its good form going after the two-month layoff and win the game. The market for this match has ping-ponged a bit. On Sunday, the line moved towards Leverkusen, but there has been some buyback on Werder Bremen on Monday morning, moving the line back down to -135.
If you’re looking to play a total, instead of playing the Under 2.5 at +122, Werder’s goal scoring issues and Leverkusen’s sturdy defense make “No” on Both Teams To Score at +126 a better value bet.
The Bet: Leverkusen -150 or better